Wednesday, May 25, 2005

Background to the start of the Military Action in Iraq

The Secret Way to War

Mark Danner

New York Review of Books June 9, 2005

13 page article on the background to the start of the Iraq military action by the USA and other Forces and comment on the Secret Memo below from the UK Government

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/18034

The Secret Downing Street Memo

SECRET AND STRICTLY PERSONAL—UK EYES ONLY

DAVID MANNINGFrom: Matthew RycroftDate: 23 July 2002S 195 /02

cc: Defence Secretary, Foreign Secretary, Attorney-General, Sir Richard Wilson, John Scarlett, Francis Richards, CDS, C, Jonathan Powell, Sally Morgan, Alastair Campbell

IRAQ: PRIME MINISTER'S MEETING, 23 JULY

Copy addressees and you met the Prime Minister on 23 July to discuss Iraq.This record is extremely sensitive. No further copies should be made. It should be shown only to those with a genuine need to know its contents.

John Scarlett summarised the intelligence and latest JIC assessment. Saddam's regime was tough and based on extreme fear. The only way to overthrow it was likely to be by massive military action. Saddam was worried and expected an attack, probably by air and land, but he was not convinced that it would be immediate or overwhelming. His regime expected their neighbours to line up with the US. Saddam knew that regular army morale was poor. Real support for Saddam among the public was probably narrowly based.
C reported on his recent talks in Washington. There was a perceptible shift in attitude. Military action was now seen as inevitable. Bush wanted to remove Saddam, through military action, justified by the conjunction of terrorism and WMD. But the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy. The NSC had no patience with the UN route, and no enthusiasm for publishing material on the Iraqi regime's record. There was little discussion in Washington of the aftermath after military action.
CDS said that military planners would brief CENTCOM on 1-2 August, Rumsfeld on 3 August and Bush on 4 August. The two broad US options were:
(a) Generated Start. A slow build-up of 250,000 US troops, a short (72 hour) air campaign, then a move up to Baghdad from the south. Lead time of 90 days (30 days preparation plus 60 days deployment to Kuwait).(b) Running Start. Use forces already in theatre (3 x 6,000), continuous air campaign, initiated by an Iraqi casus belli. Total lead time of 60 days with the air campaign beginning even earlier. A hazardous option.
The US saw the UK (and Kuwait) as essential, with basing in Diego Garcia and Cyprus critical for either option. Turkey and other Gulf states were also important, but less vital. The three main options for UK involvement were: (i) Basing in Diego Garcia and Cyprus, plus three SF squadrons. (ii) As above, with maritime and air assets in addition. (iii) As above, plus a land contribution of up to 40,000, perhaps with a discrete role in Northern Iraq entering from Turkey, tying down two Iraqi divisions.
The Defence Secretary said that the US had already begun "spikes of activity" to put pressure on the regime. No decisions had been taken, but he thought the most likely timing in US minds for military action to begin was January, with the timeline beginning 30 days before the US Congressional elections.
The Foreign Secretary said he would discuss this with Colin Powell this week. It seemed clear that Bush had made up his mind to take military action, even if the timing was not yet decided. But the case was thin. Saddam was not threatening his neighbours, and his WMD capability was less than that of Libya, North Korea or Iran. We should work up a plan for an ultimatum to Saddam to allow back in the UN weapons inspectors. This would also help with the legal justification for the use of force.
The Attorney-General said that the desire for regime change was not a legal base for military action. There were three possible legal bases: selfdefence, humanitarian intervention, or UNSC authorisation. The first and second could not be the base in this case. Relying on UNSCR 1205 of three years ago would be difficult. The situation might of course change.
The Prime Minister said that it would make a big difference politically and legally if Saddam refused to allow in the UN inspectors. Regime change and WMDwere linked in the sense that it was the regime that was producing the WMD. There were different strategies for dealing with Libya and Iran. If the political context were right, people would support regime change. The two key issues were whether the military plan worked and whether we had the political strategy to give the military plan the space to work.
On the first, CDS said that we did not know yet if the US battleplan was workable. The military were continuing to ask lots of questions. For instance, what were the consequences, if Saddam used WMD on day one, or if Baghdad did not collapse and urban warfighting began? You [i.e., David Manning] said that Saddam could also use his WMD on Kuwait. Or on Israel, added the Defence Secretary.
The Foreign Secretary thought the US would not go ahead with a military plan unless convinced that it was a winning strategy. On this, US and UK interests converged. But on the political strategy, there could be US/UK differences. Despite US resistance, we should explore discreetly the ultimatum. Saddam would continue to play hard-ball with the UN. John Scarlett assessed that Saddam would allow the inspectors back in only when he thought the threat of military action was real.
The Defence Secretary said that if the Prime Minister wanted UK military involvement, he would need to decide this early. He cautioned that many in the US did not think it worth going down the ultimatum route. It would be important for the Prime Minister to set out the political context to Bush.
Conclusions:
(a) We should work on the assumption that the UK would take part in any military action. But we needed a fuller picture of US planning before we could take any firm decisions. CDS should tell the US military that we were considering a range of options.
(b) The Prime Minister would revert on the question of whether funds could be spent in preparation for this operation.
(c) CDS would send the Prime Minister full details of the proposed military campaign and possible UK contributions by the end of the week.
(d) The Foreign Secretary would send the Prime Minister the background on the UN inspectors, and discreetly work up the ultimatum to Saddam. He would also send the Prime Minister advice on the positions of countries in the region especially Turkey, and of the key EU member states.
(e) John Scarlett would send the Prime Minister a full intelligence update.
(f) We must not ignore the legal issues: the Attorney-General would consider legal advice with FCO/MOD legal advisers.

Mark Danner has been reporting on and writing about foreign affairs for twenty years. A longtime staff writer at The New Yorker and a regular contributor to The New York Review of Books, Danner has covered Central America, Haiti, the Balkans and Iraq, among other stories. He is the author of The Massacre at El Mozote: A Parable of the Cold War and The Road to Illegitimacy: One Reporter's Travels Through the 2000 Florida Recount. His work has been honored with a National Magazine Award, two Overseas Press Awards, and an Emmy. In 1999, Danner was named a MacArthur Fellow. He is Professor of Journalism at the University of California at Berkeley and Henry R. Luce Professor of Human Rights and Journalism at Bard College. Danner divides his time between New York and San Francisco. His work is archived at markdanner.com.

8 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

большие сиськи мамы
хали гали секс бомба
aria порно
скачать бесплатно порно анальный секс
скачивание порнофильмов
лучше порно
лохматая вагина
порно малолнток
порно видео mp3
лучшее порно видео бесплатно

12:31 AM  
Blogger Coach Factory said...

kate spade handbags, prada outlet, nike air max, louis vuitton, nike air max, louis vuitton outlet online, burberry outlet online, burberry outlet online, tiffany and co jewelry, michael kors outlet, gucci handbags, tory burch outlet, louis vuitton outlet, chanel handbags, jordan shoes, longchamp outlet online, nike shoes, louboutin shoes, red bottom shoes, coach outlet store online, kate spade outlet online, polo ralph lauren outlet, oakley vault, coach outlet, prada handbags, coach purses, louis vuitton handbags, longchamp handbags, christian louboutin outlet, oakley sunglasses, cheap oakley sunglasses, michael kors outlet online, michael kors outlet online, louis vuitton outlet, polo ralph lauren, christian louboutin shoes, michael kors outlet online, ray ban outlet, nike free, longchamp outlet, michael kors outlet store, michael kors outlet online, coach outlet, true religion, ray ban sunglasses

2:57 AM  
Blogger Coach Factory said...

abercrombie and fitch, longchamp pas cher, north face, vans pas cher, nike free, nike air max, longchamp, tn pas cher, hollister, air max pas cher, michael kors canada, chaussure louboutin, oakley pas cher, sac vanessa bruno, ray ban uk, louis vuitton uk, hollister, new balance pas cher, lululemon, nike free pas cher, north face pas cher, scarpe hogan, nike trainers, air max, nike roshe, ralph lauren pas cher, barbour, nike huarache, burberry pas cher, guess pas cher, nike air max, true religion outlet, longchamp, lacoste pas cher, sac michael kors, ralph lauren, louis vuitton pas cher, michael kors uk, nike blazer pas cher, mulberry, nike air force, air jordan, hermes pas cher, louis vuitton, nike roshe run, timberland, sac louis vuitton, ray ban pas cher, converse pas cher, true religion outlet

2:58 AM  
Blogger Coach Factory said...

herve leger, soccer jerseys, uggs outlet, jimmy choo shoes, lululemon outlet, nfl jerseys, canada goose pas cher, vans outlet, soccer shoes, roshe run, valentino shoes, moncler, rolex watches, chi flat iron, uggs on sale, canada goose, north face outlet, ghd, new balance outlet, north face jackets, mcm handbags, ugg soldes, moncler, canada goose uk, mont blanc pens, beats headphones, canada goose outlet, celine handbags, instyler ionic styler, ferragamo shoes, ugg boots, bottega veneta, ugg, moncler outlet, abercrombie and fitch, ugg outlet, wedding dresses, mac cosmetics, birkin bag, reebok outlet, canada goose outlet, insanity workout, moncler, giuseppe zanotti, asics shoes, hollister, canada goose outlet, babyliss pro, marc jacobs outlet, p90x workout

3:00 AM  
Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

ninest123 16.01
nike air max, gucci outlet, longchamp, oakley sunglasses, oakley sunglasses, michael kors outlet, jordan shoes, michael kors outlet, longchamp outlet, oakley sunglasses, chanel handbags, ugg boots, polo ralph lauren outlet, louboutin outlet, louis vuitton outlet, ugg boots, prada outlet, louis vuitton outlet, replica watches, louis vuitton, ray ban sunglasses, nike outlet, ugg boots, oakley sunglasses, ray ban sunglasses, christian louboutin outlet, nike free, polo ralph lauren outlet, louis vuitton, ray ban sunglasses, tiffany jewelry, michael kors outlet, michael kors, michael kors outlet, louboutin, louis vuitton, uggs on sale, tory burch outlet, cheap oakley sunglasses, longchamp outlet, louboutin shoes, michael kors outlet, prada handbags, ugg boots, replica watches, nike air max, burberry outlet online, tiffany and co, burberry

3:28 AM  
Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

ray ban uk, oakley pas cher, tn pas cher, ralph lauren uk, true religion jeans, nike huarache, nike air max, new balance pas cher, nike air max, nike blazer, hogan, michael kors, coach purses, north face, michael kors, nike free run uk, air max, converse pas cher, true religion jeans, timberland, lacoste pas cher, coach outlet, mulberry, nike air max, air force, michael kors, burberry, true religion jeans, louboutin pas cher, nike roshe, longchamp, lululemon, nike free, longchamp pas cher, replica handbags, nike trainers, ralph lauren pas cher, abercrombie and fitch, sac longchamp, nike roshe run, north face, ray ban pas cher, michael kors, vanessa bruno, sac guess, air jordan pas cher, hollister pas cher, hermes, vans pas cher, true religion outlet, hollister

3:35 AM  
Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

celine handbags, lululemon, birkin bag, bottega veneta, abercrombie and fitch, chi flat iron, mcm handbags, ralph lauren, gucci, nfl jerseys, vans, herve leger, p90x workout, nike air max, nike roshe, new balance, iphone 6s cases, iphone 5s cases, baseball bats, converse, ghd, iphone 6 cases, babyliss, hollister, louboutin, ray ban, north face outlet, reebok shoes, iphone cases, beats by dre, giuseppe zanotti, hollister, oakley, mont blanc, vans shoes, timberland boots, nike air max, north face outlet, ferragamo shoes, ipad cases, wedding dresses, iphone 6s plus cases, mac cosmetics, insanity workout, instyler, soccer jerseys, iphone 6 plus cases, soccer shoes, asics running shoes, valentino shoes, jimmy choo shoes, s5 cases

3:38 AM  
Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

barbour jackets, pandora jewelry, canada goose, converse outlet, replica watches, supra shoes, canada goose, louis vuitton, ugg,ugg australia,ugg italia, pandora charms, moncler, montre pas cher, sac louis vuitton pas cher, doudoune canada goose, hollister, ugg boots uk, thomas sabo, moncler, moncler, karen millen, moncler, canada goose outlet, moncler, moncler, canada goose uk, canada goose, canada goose outlet, canada goose, ugg,uggs,uggs canada, juicy couture outlet, moncler outlet, pandora charms, barbour, doke gabbana outlet, wedding dresses, moncler, swarovski crystal, louis vuitton, toms shoes, bottes ugg, lancel, links of london, louis vuitton, marc jacobs, coach outlet, louis vuitton, juicy couture outlet, swarovski, ugg pas cher, pandora jewelry
ninest123 16.01

3:40 AM  

Post a Comment

<< Home